Morning Coffee: If you can't get an M&A job now, you never will. Ex-Apollo CEO's $600k a month family spending habit

If you couldn't find an M&A job last year, and now you can't find an M&A job this year, destiny may not be on your side. Last year, many M&A bankers were hired. This year, talk is rife of a once in a decade M&A extravaganza.

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Speaking at this week's UBS Financial Services Conference, JPMorgan's co-CEO of the commercial and investment bank, Troy Rohrbaugh, said the bank hired 1,000 people in the front office last year and that around 333 of those were "senior bankers." This year, co-head of global banking Filippo Gori, has said that JPMorgan wants yet more bankers in Europe, where it intends to be, "hiring in every country, pretty much across the region."

If JPMorgan isn't your cup of tea, there are alternatives. Financial News points out that UBS wants another 25 managing directors, to add to the 25 managing directors it hired last year, with a focus on the US market. Deutsche Bank is hiring another 60 bankers, too, and is also thinking of the US. Wells Fargo has it in mind to hire another 25-30 senior bankers. Only Barclays seems hesitant, saying it's made the "investments" and "got the talent" and now expects the revenues to flow.

With luck, they will flow bounteously. CEOs speaking at this week's conference were unspeakably optimistic about the possibilities for this year. "I think it can be really possibly one of the better years we've seen in a very long time in M&A or certainly in that top decile," declared Rohrbaugh. "In terms of the M&A market, I think this could be a top decile, top quartile, certainly, potentially top decile kind of M&A opportunity set," pondered David Solomon at Goldman Sachs. 

The subtext to this enthusiasm is that private equity firms are getting desperate. They need to sell existing investments and they can't stop waiting for a good price. "They've got to return capital, whether they're selling stuff and they're going to the M&A market or they're getting stuff public, they've got to return more capital," also said Solomon. Private equity firms really need some "liquidity events" in 2025, agreed Rohrbaugh. At the same time, Rohrbaugh said "trade corridors" are shifting to, "Middle East to Asia, Middle East to Europe, Middle East to Latin America. Asia to Europe," and that this too is creating opportunities. 

Hiring senior bankers is usually followed by hiring junior bankers. Experienced vice presidents are in vogue, but associates may follow. The only danger is the kind of black swan event that has become a white swan in recent years. Rohrbaugh observed that he was equally optimistic at the start of 2025: "And then April 2 happened."

Separately, if you're struggling to pay the bills each month, spare a thought for Leon Black, the former CEO of Apollo Global Management, whose personal run rate is out of control.

The Wall Street Journal observes that the Black family are big spenders. Documents released in the Epstein files suggest they spend $600k a month. In a two month period in 2015, they spent twice that, including $27k on dining out, $35k on clothing, $67k on alcohol and $48k for landscaping at their home in the Hamptons. Eleven years ago, they also had a $484m loan to repay.

Leon Black is no longer at Apollo, but he is not buying £10 wine. Black still owns 7% of Apollo and is worth an estimated $14bn. At the time of the information in the Epstein files he owned seven homes, 11 cars, a Gulfstream jet and a Benetti yacht.

Meanwhile...

Wells Fargo has been hiring senior bankers and says: "We've hired roughly 100 or so senior folks across the investment bank." (Business Insider) 

Ted Pick at Morgan Stanley earned $45m for last year. He earned $34m the year before. (Bloomberg) 

Citadel says Daniel Shatz, the global head of credit at Marshall Wace, stole its secrets for a new team. Marshall Wace says he did not. (Bloomberg) 

Alastair Hall, senior managing director for Europe, and Chris Hogg, a director who led the firm’s digital infrastructure investments, have left Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System after it wrote off investments in Thames Water. (FT) 

Goldman Sachs has 130 bankers, traders and private-credit staff in India and they're in a shiny new building in Mumbai’s Worli business district. It also has 8,000 people in its Indian tech hub. (Bloomberg) 

Deutsche Bank settled with Michele Foresti, its former head of structured trading. He had argued that he was wrongly implicated in an audit report looking at the Monte dei Paschi accounting scandal. (Bloomberg) 

33 year-old finance bro Mark Moran is launching a bid for Senate in Virginia, running as a Democrat against incumbent Mark Warner. (Business Insider) 

The new flex is to own a pub. "On the face of it, [pubs] can look inexpensive but ultimately that’s because they make no money. But if they can be run by a wealthy owner who doesn’t need the income, then the business can be more viable.” (Financial Times) 

Goldman Sachs' dinner budget is now $35, up from $30. You need to work past 8pm to get it. (Business Insider) 

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