The countries & continents expecting the biggest bonuses in 2024
The 1,700 people that voted in our bonus expectations survey for the upcoming bonus period came to a pretty straight consensus: bonuses are going up this year, by a lot. They also agreed that bonuses aren't going up so much everywhere in the world.
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Across the globe, people are more optimistic about their bonuses than last year. And the most optimistic place in the world is the Gulf, where bonuses are expected to increase by nearly 80% compared to last year.
Most voters in this block are based in the UAE. Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi have seen huge inflows of people, investment, and international attention: Abu Dhabi Global Markets reported that assets under management in the economic zone (where the majority of international firms in the city are based) increased by 215% between the end of Q3 2023 and 2024.
The optimism in Dubai is attracting talent from elsewhere. One portfolio manager in Hong Kong, for example, told us that despite expecting his bonus to double to $300k, he’s considering a move to Dubai in 2025.
The least optimistic area is, surprisingly, North America. Last year, American respondents were the most optimistic about their bonuses increasing. The comparative lack of optimism seems to go against the grain. This year, North American investment banking revenue increased higher than anywhere else in the world, according to Dealogic – by 31%, compared to the 24% increase in Europe, 17% increase in Japan, and 22% decrease in North Asia (including China).
A Morgan Stanley quant VP in New York is symptomatic of the sense of moderation. He told us he’s expecting his bonus to be “good”, and “reflective of the market.” He only expects his bonus to increase by only 20%, however.
Our European respondents were also only moderately optimistic. We had a disproportionate number of respondents working in fixed income currencies and commodities (FICC) jobs in Europe – a subsector that has had a challenging year so far.
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